BREAKING NEWS: The National Weather Service has cancelled a winter storm watch in Middlesex and Burlington counties. A winter storm warning will take effect in Mercer, Somerset, Hunterdon, Monmouth and Bucks Sunday afternoon.
By T.J. Furman
The National Weather Service has revised its forecast for the nor’easter expected to strike later today and has cancelled the winter storm watch for part of Central New Jersey.
However, a winter storm warning will take effect Sunday afternoon in other areas and severe coastal flooding and beach erosion is still expected.
The storm’s slow movement from the Southeast to the mid-Atlantic states will allow warmer air to move across the area before precipitation begins to fall, according to a NWS statement issued at 4:55 this morning from its Mount Holly office.
The winter storm watch in Monmouth and Burlington counties has been cancelled. The weather service predicts that much of the precipitation that falls today and into tomorrow morning will be in the form of rain. Colder air is expected to move across those counties Monday morning, changing the precipitation over to snow for Monday and into Tuesday.
A winter storm warning will take effect Sunday afternoon in Mercer, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Somerset and Bucks (Pa.) counties. The air in these areas is expected to be warmer than originally forecast as well, but the precipitation is expected to fall as a wintry mix beginning early this afternoon. Accumulation before Monday morning is forecasted to be restricted to the northernmost parts of the warning area.
Colder air is also expected to move through those five counties Monday morning, changing the precipitation over to all snow. Accumulation is expected at that time.
The NWS has not released revised snowfall accumulation predictions, which ranged from 8 inches to 2 feet in Central Jersey in forecasts issued yesterday. The weather service still says accumulations of 2 feet or more are possible in northwestern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania.
The forecast revision is due to the slow pace the storm is setting as it moves from the southeast corner of the United States to the mid-Atlantic coast. The low pressure area creating the havoc was originally expected to be off the North Carolina coastline by Sunday afternoon. It is now forecasted to move off the Virginia coast Monday morning, allowing a mass of warmer air to move into New Jersey before the precipitation falls.
Though the snow accumulations may not be as high as originally foretold, coastal flood watches will still be in effect from Sunday night through Tuesday night for Middlesex and Monmouth counties. The NWS says the first threat of flooding is expected to take place during the high tide between 1 a.m. and 3 a.m. Monday.
Minor coastal flooding is expected with the Monday morning high tide, moderate flooding with the Monday afternoon swell and severe coastal flooding is possible with the high tides Tuesday morning and afternoon, and Wednesday morning, according to the NWS. The tide may reach as high as 9 1/2 feet at Sandy Hook on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
Winter storm watches are issued when severe weather is possible, but not imminent. Storm watches are upgraded to storm warnings when the severe weather is expected to occur and is imminent.
The last major snowstorm to strike the area moved through on Dec. 30, 2000, dropping as much as 22 inches on Central Jersey and 25.5 inches in the northern-most parts of the Garden State.
Two snowstorms last month caused traffic headaches. A storm struck Feb. 5, dumping over a foot of snow in northwest parts of Hunterdon County and totals of 3 to 5 inches in other parts of the area. Traffic was backed up for hours in parts of Central Jersey as the storm began in the late morning hours and grew more powerful than expected, continuing well into an extended evening rush hour.
A storm on Feb. 22 left Central Jersey with accumulations of 3 to 8 inches and again caused evening rush hour traffic back-ups.
Check back with this Web site for updates concerning this storm.