Analysis debunks light-rail as Route 1 traffic solution

Centralized development seen as a more promising approach.

By: David Campbell
   WEST WINDSOR — A combined light-rail system along Route 1 with enhanced bus service would yield insignificant reductions in traffic growth in the next 20 years, according to a new study prepared for the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission.
   Without changes to existing land-use patterns, the expected population and employment boom in the region will not provide the needed ridership to fund the annual $20 million operating cost for light-rail, a price tag which does not include capital costs for installation, a second study conducted by NJ Transit indicated.
   Enhanced bus service with a yearly increase of $2.8 million in operating costs would be more viable for the region, according to NJ Transit.
   "Land use has a big influence on ridership," NJ Transit’s Tom Marchwinski told members of the Central Jersey Transportation Forum, held Friday at Sarnoff Corp. on Washington Road.
   The forum, organized by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, is an ongoing consortium of leaders from local public and private organizations as well as state officials to explore regional land-use and transportation solutions.
   Proposed light-rail with bus enhancements, in conjunction with development focused in town centers, would produce a 6.6-percent reduction in growth of vehicle trips between 1997 and 2020, a study by consultant URS Greiner showed.
   But two-thirds of that reduction is directly related to proposed centralized development, the study showed.
   With the light-rail and other improvements, congestion is still expected to increase to about 1.4 million daily vehicle trips by 2020, up from 895,300 as of 1997.
   The findings represent traffic growth with no new roadway infrastructure.
   "This is telling you that if you do nothing with highway improvements, you will not see significant reductions," said John Coscia, planning commission executive director.
   The NJ Transit study supported Greiner’s findings that land-use changes would have the greatest impact in reducing vehicle trips and making light-rail more feasible for the region.
   Mr. Marchwinski said a rapid-transit bus system that runs on designated causeways in combination with a light-rail segment might be more viable for the region.
   Some forum members responded to the sobering findings by questioning some assumptions behind the studies.
   Alison Miller, West Windsor Council president, said increased population in her township resulting from proposed centralization cannot happen without funding for increased municipal services, and questioned where such funds would come from.
   Princeton Borough Mayor Marvin Reed said of the findings, "After we’ve spent millions of dollars," motorists stuck in traffic will not notice the modest decreases in congestion growth.
   Mayor Reed said the studies did not figure in the political challenges facing proposed improvements, and as such called the studies "optimistic" at best.
   Peggy Killmer of the Regional Citizens Committee said the studies did not address issues of racial justice, in particular the needs of commuters from Trenton and other urban areas.
   "We’re missing the point in this study," Ms. Killmer said.
   Dianne Brake of the Regional Planning Partnership said, "This is a fairly modest model with fairly modest results."
   Hopewell Township Deputy Mayor Jon Edwards said water supplies in the region cannot support centralization.
   "There is not enough water in Mercer County to support your assumption," he said.
   Bus rapid-transit systems have proven successful in cities nationwide and in other countries, Michael Baltes and Joel Rey of the Center for Urban Transportation Research at the University of South Florida told forum members.
   The buses run on speciallydesignated roads or causeways, and are packaged to "make it distinct from local services, to make it premium, something that stands out from the local network," Mr. Baltes said.
   Services include enhanced bus stops and luxury vehicles with passenger amenities such as onboard television monitors displaying local travel updates and CNN.
   Bus rapid-transit is intended to attract white-collar clientele and thereby reduce auto dependency in the region, Mr. Baltes said.
   Mr. Rey said the bus may not be much faster than driving, but added, "The perceived time is more important than the actual time saving."
   The forum’s next meeting is Nov. 16.