predicts 949 more
pupils by 2007
Marlboro school board told
enrollment will keep rising
Demographer
predicts 949 more
pupils by 2007
By jeanette m. eng
Staff Writer
The demographer who works for Marlboro’s K-8 school district delivered some sobering news to Board of Education members last week.
"The bottom line is another 949 children by 2007," Sara Weissman told the board.
"That’s the size of the new middle school we just built," said Superintendent of Schools Dr. David Abbott.
At the Dec. 10 meeting, board members were made aware of Marlboro’s continuing increase in enrollment.
According to Weissman, Marlboro’s K-8 school district has grown by 155 pupils since last year, opening this fall with 5,825 children. A projection made in 1999 for the 2002-03 school year was 5,810 children. She said the accuracy of the four-year projection proved how well the current method works for Marlboro.
"To come within 15 children when you’re talking about thousands is very admirable," said board President Dr. Terry Spilken.
The current year’s growth of 155 students is attributable to a combination of factors, Weiss-man said.
According to Weissman, one of the major factors is what she called first-grade walk-ins, which include children who are new to the community as well as children who live in Marlboro, but attended private full-day kindergarten programs.
According to enrollment reports, the number of walk-ins has grown steadily, from 143 in 1997 to 248 this year. The kindergarten to first-grade walk-in factor over the last five years has been half or more of district growth, according to figures presented to the board.
This year, the first-grade walk-in represented 58.8 percent of the district’s growth, according to the information presented at the meeting.
In a subsequent interview, Weissman explained that even with all of the available information, it remains very difficult to have a handle on the first-grade walk-in numbers on an annual basis.
"On average, Marlboro is issuing over 200 permits a year for new construction and (seeing) about 500 home sales a year," said Weissman. "With 700 or so housing units changing hands each year, it really is sort of a miracle the projective method works as well as it does."
Another contributing factor to the increasing student enrollment is the number of children in Marlboro’s families. According to Weissman, Marlboro has a greater than average number of families with more than two children. A preschool survey conducted in 1997 showed that 57.5 percent of families in Marlboro had two children and 22.2 percent had three children.
"Any one of the families with more children is going to be using the school system longer," Weissman said. "If a family has three to four children, they could be using the K-8 schools for 12 years as opposed to a family with one child who would be done in eight years."
The projection of an additional 949 students by 2007 consists of 754 pupils in K-5 and 195 students in grades six through eight. While this is not far from Marlboro’s growth of 835 pupils between 1998 and 2002, it is unusual, according to the demographer.
"Most other communities are seeing a substantial slowdown in growth rate and numbers," Weissman said. "Marlboro’s volume of building and sales is unusually high. This district has not quit or had a down year, extending over 12 years."
Abbott said the school board will certainly conduct a study over the next couple years to address the situation.
"Right now we have to sit back and successfully implement our redistricting, the opening of our new school and the reorganization of our grade levels," the superintendent said.
Abbott said once the new Marlboro Memorial Middle School is opened and the sixth grade is moved to the two middle schools, it will return the district’s elementary schools to normal levels and then administrators can start addressing the issue of how the district will absorb the 900 pupils Weissman has projected will be coming to Marlboro between now and 2007.