Kerry will win, but what do I know?
By: Hank Kalet
I am making a prediction, based on nothing so much as a hunch, nothing scientific, mind you, but I want this on the record. John Kerry will win New Jersey by at least 8 percentage points and probably by double digits. The polls have it closer, but I just don’t see it.
As for the national race, I’m going to say Kerry, though I wouldn’t place any money on it. It is going to be close, but as my friend Steve says, there are a lot of new voters, especially younger voters, and the major polling outfits have admitted that they are not really a part of their calculations. He’s expecting something decisive, but I just can’t see it.
In any case, if it is close then we have to ask ourselves several questions:
1. What does it say about the president? After all, if the country was happy with his performance, it would have had no problem giving him its undivided support. If he does manage to win, I’d like to hope that the race’s closeness would mean that President Bush would govern a bit more from the center, but my assumption is that he will claim a false mandate and go hard for his conservative base. That means more of the same in terms of judicial appointments and tax policy.
2. What does it say about our nation that we are so bitterly divided and what can we do to bridge this divide?