Elite college acceptances of blacks would drop by almost two-thirds, Hispanics by half; Asians would gain almost four-fifths of these spots.
By: David Campbell
A new study by two researchers at Princeton University concludes that eliminating affirmative action in elite college admissions would result in sharp declines in the numbers of blacks and Hispanics accepted, with little gain for white students.
In a study published in the June issue of the journal Social Science Quarterly, Professor Thomas Espenshade and Chang Chung, senior technical staff member in Princeton’s Office of Population Research, shed light on the controversial notion that ignoring race in admissions decisions would lead to a marked increase in the number of white students better qualified, but unfairly displaced by affirmative action gaining admittance.
In fact, the researchers found that while eliminating affirmative action indeed would result in significant declines in the acceptance rates of minorities, as well as long-term negative impacts on these communities such as a possible future leadership drain, they found that whites would see negligible gains.
According to the study, in the absence of affirmative action the acceptance rate for black candidates would drop by almost two-thirds, from 33.7 percent to 12.2 percent. The acceptance rate for Hispanic applicants, meanwhile, would be cut in half, from 26.8 percent to 12.9 percent.
However, eliminating race as a factor in admissions decisions would boost acceptance rates for whites by a mere .5 percentage points.
But Professor Espenshade, a professor of sociology and faculty associate at the Office of Population Research, indicated that when one group loses ground, another must gain. In this case, he said Thursday, the beneficiaries would be Asian applicants.
Typically, many more Asian students apply to elite schools than other underrepresented minorities. Asians would fill almost four out of every five places in the admitted class not taken by blacks and Hispanics, with an acceptance rate rising from nearly 18 percent to more than 23 percent, the study found.
The study also found that although athletes and legacy applicants are predominantly white, their numbers are so small that their admissions do little to displace minority applicants, Professor Espenshade continued.
He said the study, titled "The Opportunity Cost of Admission Preferences at Elite Universities," is just the beginning of a much longer project that will examine not only college admissions, but also the racial, socioeconomic and class dimensions of college life.
The study published this month was based on models involving more than 45,000 applicants. It was funded by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation.
Professor Espenshade pointed out that different kinds of preferences are given to different kinds of candidates, and race is only one.
"We’re trying to put these admission preferences in context so people understand that lots of students, including those with SAT scores above 1500, are getting a boost," he said.