BY DAVE BENJAMIN
Staff Writer
The Freehold Regional High School District (FRHSD) will stand pat with six high schools for the foreseeable future and will not ask for voter approval to construct a seventh building.
A demographic analysis was presented to the district’s Board of Education on June 6 at Colts Neck High School. Superintendent of Schools James Wasser had news that affects every taxpayer in the eight towns that make up the district.
“The demographics do not warrant building a new high school at this time,” Wasser said. “We cannot ask for a referendum to build another high school until it is absolutely necessary. In good conscience we cannot do that to the taxpayers.”
Wasser said he is still hoping one municipality will provide land for a seventh high school should the construction of that building become necessary in the future. He said the six existing buildings will approach their functional capacity in the coming years, but said the board will not seek the tens of millions of dollars it would take to add a seventh high school.
Demographer Stan Slachetka and geocoding consultant John Pavek told the board they were using a combination of methods to determine the data needed to project enrollments in the district.
Slachetka said they used a combination of the cohort survival method, which uses historic enrollment data and birth records, along with the growth scenario method, which uses community growth rates, in order to come up with a clear picture of the future.
Recapping the period between 1990 and 2000, Slachetka said there was an increase in the total population of the district from 140,418 to 175,767, or an increase of 35,349 students of which 23 percent were 5 to 19 years old.
Housing units increased by 24 percent during that same period of time, along with 2,200 births per year.
Reviewing the K-8 sending districts during the last five years, he said enrollments appear to be leveling off. The following numbers are for the FRHSD’s elementary sending districts.
• In the 2000-01 school year there were 25,300 children.
• In 2001-02 there were 25,864 students, an increase of 564 or 2.3 percent.
• In 2002-03 there were 26,207 students, an increase of 343 or 1.3 percent.
• In 2003-04 there were 26,301 students, an increase of 94 or 0.4 percent.
• In 2004-05 there were 26,238 students, a decrease of 63 children or 0.2 percent.
The total change for the K-8 level for the period was an increase of 938 students or 3.7 percent, with an average annual change of 235 students or 0.9 percent.
During the same period of time, 2000-05, on the high school level:
• In 2000-01, there were 9,299 students.
• In 2001-02, there were 9,721 students, an increase of 422 or 4.5 percent.
• In 2002-03, there were 10,318 students, an increase of 597 or 6.1 percent.
• In 2003-04, there were 10,849 students, an increase of 531 or 5.2 percent.
• In 2004-05, there were 11,233 students, an increase of 384 or 3.5 percent.
The total change for the high school level for the period was an increase of 1,934 students or 20.8 percent, with an average annual change of 483 students or an increase of 5.2 percent.
Slachetka told the board there appears to be a flattening of the enrollment growth at the K-8 level, while the high school level shows continued slowing of growth.
He said the figures are edging toward functional capacity on the high school level. He said there are reasons for the trend, noting a declining rate of residential development, a more sluggish economy, changes in zoning, and although the size of families has remained approximately the same three people per household on the average, the number of building permits has decreased and the houses and the lot sizes are getting larger.
Projections for the future of the K-8 sending districts are:
• In 2004-05, there are 26,238 students.
• In 2005-06, there will be 26,433 students, an increase of 195 or 0.7 percent.
• In 2006-07, there will be 26,853 students, an increase of 420 or 1.6 percent.
• In 2007-08, there will be 26,974 students, an increase of 121 or 0.5 percent.
• In 2008-09, there will be 27,076 students, an increase of 102 or 0.4 percent.
• In 2009-10, there will be 27,311 students, an increase of 235 or 0.9 percent.
The total change for the K-8 sending districts projected through the period will be an increase of 1,073 students or 4.1 percent. The average annual change will be an increase of 215 students per year or 0.8 percent.
High school projections for the future include:
• In 2004-05, there are 11,233 students.
• In 2005-06, there will be 11,702 students, an increase of 469 or 4.2 percent.
• In 2006-07, there will be 11,746 students, an increase of 44 or 0.4 percent.
• In 2007-08, there will be 11,894 students, an increase of 148 or 1.3 percent.
• In 2008-09, there will be 11,863 students, a decrease of -31 or -0.7 percent.
• In 2009-10, there will be 11,984 students, an increase of 121 or 1.0 percent.
The total change at the high school level for the period is expected to be an increase of 751 students or 6.7 percent. The average annual change for the high school level will be 150 students per year or 1.3 percent.
Slachetka said there are some things that can change the figures and they include: changes at Naval Weapons Station Earle; changes in the economy; Mount Laurel housing issues, e.g. new affordable housing numbers and regulations; changes caused by unique district issues, e.g. Freehold Borough ethnic population changes; and external factors, e.g. national issues and/or new laws and regulations.
Slachetka drew the following conclusions:
• High school enrollments will increase to just under a total of 12,000 students by the 2009-10 school year.
• There will be an additional 750 students with an average increase of 150 high school students per year.
• There will be a continued decline in the rate of growth in enrollment.
• The rate will continue to approach the capacity of the high school district.
• Full functional capacity of the district is 12,200 students.
• Slight fluctuations could have a significant impact.
A geocoding presentation was given by Pavek which indicated where student live in each municipality. It noted clusters of students by grade level.
Board member Terry Kraft of Howell said he has seen some residential developments, Candlewood in Howell for example, where older residents have moved out and younger families with children have moved in.
“That’s the only source of affordable housing they can get,” Kraft said. “That phenomenon exists in the entire Route 9 corridor from Howell through Marlboro, Manalapan and Freehold. We have established developments that are 35 to 40 years old and I think it might be valuable to take a look at those developments.”
Board member Bonnie Rosenwald of Marlboro asked for a breakdown of the student population by town and was told the board would receive that information.