Research needs to look more at implications of new line
By: Hank Kalet
The folks in Monmouth and Ocean counties want us to believe that two plus two does not equal four.
Officials in the two counties along with The Asbury Park Press and others are touting a new, as yet unfinished rail ridership study as "further justification" that a high-speed commuter rail line through Monmouth Junction would be the best way to fix traffic woes in the Route 9 corridor.
The study takes into account the impact that a new Trans-Hudson Express Tunnel, scheduled to open in 2016, is likely to have on the three options under consideration by the NJ Transit.
Shore area officials say the planned tunnel, by allowing trains to travel directly into New York (the plan for the proposed high-speed line, known as the MOM Line, currently relies on diesel trains that are not allowed to travel through the existing rail tunnel into New York), would drastically alter ridership figures, proving that the Monmouth Junction line is the best option.
Their arguments are pretty straightforward: The new tunnel, by being accessible to hybrid dual-mode electric-diesel trains, would make it possible for Shore commuters to take a train to New York without having to get off and transfer in Newark. This will shorten the commute time along the Monmouth Junction alternative, boosting ridership numbers.
The argument, of course, fails to acknowledge the obvious: Commute times will be shortened for all three options (two plus two does equal four, afterall). This would leave the Monmouth Junction option as the one with the longest commute time and the highest price tag. (All three begin in Lakehurst, run through Lakewood and end in Newark.)
A draft study released last year essentially offered these numbers:
The Monmouth Junction option which would head west from Lakewood through Freehold, Monroe, Jamesburg and Dayton before connecting with the Northeast Corridor rail line in Monmouth Junction would cost $860 million to construct and $49 million to operate. It would be a total of 72 miles long, with riders traveling about 1 hour and 50 minutes to Newark Penn Station. The study also estimated that the option would attract 4,500 daily riders.
The Red Bank option which would head north from Lakewood and connect with the North Jersey Coast Line in Red Bank would cost $600 million to construct and $42 million to operate. It would be a total of 62 miles long, with riders traveling about 1 hour and 37 minutes to Newark. There would be 3,950 daily riders.
The Matawan option which would head west from Lakewood to Freehold, before turning north and connecting with the North Jersey Coast Line in Matawan would cost $730 million to build and $45 million to operate. It would be a total of 59 miles long, with riders traveling about 1 hour and 35 minutes to Newark. There would be 5,440 daily riders.
Let’s break this down: The Monmouth Junction line would cost about 18 percent more to build than the Matawan line and 43 percent more to build than Red Bank. It would cost almost 9 percent more to operate than the Matawan line and nearly 17 percent more than the Red Bank line. And it would attract about 14 percent more riders than the Red Bank line, but about 17 percent fewer riders than the Matawan line.
A slam-dunk, as the Shore area folk seem to think? Not unless a slam dunk can be defined as a half-court shot with three defenders hanging from your arm.
Admittedly, these figures could change once a new tunnel is factored in, but it seems unlikely that the tunnel could make that much of a difference. Won’t all three options, after all, benefit from the new tunnel?
The answer, it seems, is yes. So why push the Monmouth Junction option to the exclusion of all others? The answer is that Shore area supporters of a rail line do not want to deal with the political opposition in their own backyard. No one is disputing that there is a need to get cars off the road in the Route 9 corridor. The only question is why impose upon south Middlesex County to accomplish this when there are cheaper alternatives that offer a shorter commute.
Commuters in Monmouth and Ocean counties bear a great deal of the blame for the delays in addressing traffic woes in their region. After all, their steadfast opposition to rail routes through their own backyards and their willingness to address the issue at the expense of towns like Jamesburg, Monroe and South Brunswick have helped create the current political stalemate.
So I say to commuters near the Shore: If you want a train, you have to deal with the pain.
Hank Kalet is managing editor of the South Brunswick Post and The Cranbury Press. He can be reached via e-mail, or through his weblog, Channel Surfing.

