At Princeton University gathering, New York Times columnist predicts momentous changes in the next few weeks
By: Alice Lloyd George
"There’s a Democrat storm surge that’s heading for the Republican levee," said Paul Krugman, prominent New York Times columnist and professor of economics at Princeton University on Wednesday. "The question is whether the surge is high enough to pass that levy."
In an informal dinner discussion with about 20 Princeton University students, Mr. Krugman handed charts to the group and gave an optimistic forecast for the Democratic Party in the upcoming midterm elections.
"If I had to guess right now, I think the Democrats will take the House, but it’s not going to be close," he said. "They will either fail or win by a large margin." In the event of a Democratic loss, Mr. Krugman maintained that there would still "be opportunities for replay later on."
Mr. Krugman forecast momentous changes in the next few weeks.
"The image of future American politics that people had until a few weeks ago was one of long-term Republican dominance. But it might well be that we’re on the verge of one of those shifts in the regional balance," he said, suggesting that "the Great Plains and Mountain States" seem to be going Democratic. "It wouldn’t be too bad if the Republicans get the rump of the old Confederacy while the Democrats get the rest," he joked.
Mr. Krugman affirmed that the current administration has little in the way of political trump cards that can be played before the elections.
"What will they do?" he asked. "Pull Osama out of the freezer?" The political pundit argued that the sizeable campaign finances as yet unspent by the Republicans will go almost entirely towards anti-Democratic advertisements.
He also discussed the importance of President George W. Bush’s role in the November outcome. "In large part the election is about George Bush," he said while illustrating the president’s recent plummet in approval polls. He cited the war as another critical factor. "Iraq is the signature policy of this administration," he said. "And things have not gone well."
Mr. Krugman argued that the stark contrast between President Bush’s optimistic war commentary and the damaging reports from the field has caused widespread disenchantment. "Now people are really disillusioned," he said. "They are likely to vote differently about the same issue this time."
He further described a failing "war on terror" and economic problems as long-term issues that could serve as serious blows. "While there has been a peculiar economic recovery, it has left many people behind," he said. "And pretty much everything else has gone wrong."
Citing failings in Social Security reform, Mr. Krugman asserted that the Republicans don’t seem to offer fresh solutions to old problems. "There’s a clear sense of ‘stuckness’ about the Republican coalition," he said. "There’s something wrong they clearly don’t have the ability to move issues forward."
Mr. Krugman suggested a Democratic victory would not necessarily guarantee the party long-term power.
"There’s a real question of whether they’ll be able to hold on," he said. "Perhaps when people feel that the Republicans have been punished, they’ll go back to voting Republican again."
Predicting a further upsurge in violence, Mr. Krugman argued that involvement in the Middle East would be particularly problematic. "Foreign policy that might tear the Democrats apart," he said. "Because what do you do in Iraq? Almost everyone agrees that if we pull out, terrible things will happen. Almost everyone also agrees that if we stay, terrible things will happen."
Mr. Krugman said a Democratic win would almost certainly signify an increase in the minimum wage within the first few weeks. But beyond that, he maintained that a split government would leave the Democrats facing significant difficulties in policy implementation, particularly regarding tax increases and health-care reform. "It could be extremely divided, with blocking power on both sides," he said.
"No matter who takes over, I don’t think there’s going to be significant legislation in the next two years," he said. "Let’s just hope nothing that really requires the U.S. government to act in the next two years happens. Because no one’s really going to be in charge."
Mr. Krugman suggested that a loss for the Republicans might in fact serve them better in the long term. "Many think their party has become obsessed with power," he said. "A loss might help to clean it out.
"We’ve had a minimum of external accountability these last six years," he said. "There’s really been no opportunity for people outside the party to launch investigations."
Mr. Krugman speculated that there is a "tremendous amount of corruption and scandal festering under secrecy" at the present time. "I actually believe that an enormous amount of scandal will come out if the Democrats gain power," he said.
Mr. Krugman asserted that Republican humiliations would also be influential in the midterm elections, alluding to the recent resignation of Republican U.S. Rep. Mark Foley of Florida. "You can understand why the Republicans are completely furious about the Foley affair," he said. "It just undercuts the party as a party of values."
He referred to the apparently illogical drop in economic approval ratings following the scandal, arguing that it proves how "people form a pattern in their mind about what they think is going on." He explained that "the mess in Iraq" and "the failure of Katrina" were similarly related in voters’ minds. "It’s an issue of management style in both cases," he said.
Speculating about the chances of re-election for incumbent Democrat New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez, Mr. Krugman said that despite recent scandals he would probably win. "I think people will pinch their noses when it comes to Menendez," he said. He also voiced his support for Rep. Rush Holt (D-12). "There was some talk of Holt running (for senator). That would have been a perfect choice from my point of view," he said.
Mr. Krugman also discussed the possibility of electoral fraud in the midterm elections.
"Gerrymandering is less of a factor than how voters are distributed among districts," he said, highlighting the black vote as being particularly crucial. Yet he also advocated the benefits of electoral reform, referencing the French "many eyes" method that allows for as many independent parties as possible to monitor the vote counting as a positive example.
Mr. Krugman talked about the implications of a populace misinformed by the media, criticizing the frequent disconnect between politicians’ platforms and the issues broadcast to the wider population.
"For people who are busy with kids or jobs, people who sit down to watch the evening news, a lot of those issues presented are actually quite remote," he said.
When questioned about gubernatorial candidate Richard S. "Kinky" Friedman of Texas and one-time governor of Minnesota Jesse "The Body" Ventura, Mr. Krugman was cynical. "People vote for image. Celebrity. It’s not that they’re totally stupid, they just don’t know a whole lot about what’s going on," he said. "There’s a lot of populism, but people are not so sure what they’re populist about."
Mr. Krugman described the current political atmosphere as intense. "Before 2000 people were bored by the election. I don’t think people think that now," he said. "The Kerry bumper stickers are still on and passions are high … the perfect storm is here. Whether it’s enough? We just don’t know."

