Forecasting model helped mitigate impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita
By: Laruren Otis
The devastation wrought by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in August and September 2005 will go down in history because of its extent and duration, with New Orleans and other Gulf Coast communities still trying to recover over a year later.
But if not for the efforts of two research meteorologists based in Plainsboro, the devastation might have been worse.
Recently those scientists, Morris Bender and Tim Marchok, who work at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, which is a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the U.S. Department of Commerce, were recognized for their work on hurricane forecast modeling. Both were awarded the Gold Medal from the Department of Commerce, the highest award the department confers.
The award recognized improvements the two men made to the hurricane model used by the National Weather Service, resulting in improvements to forecasting the track and intensity of hurricanes specifically Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
"In 2005, we were able to increase the resolution of the model by a significant amount. What that does is it allows a much more realistic depiction of the hurricane vortex," said Mr. Marchok. Now "we are the only model that correctly predicts the detailed structure of the storm," its interaction with its environment and where its path will be, said Mr. Bender.
Hurricane Katrina may have devastated New Orleans, but not for lack of notice. Almost three full days before the hurricane made landfall, the advanced model they had worked on predicted where it would make landfall, said Mr. Marchok. "Every forecast after that was consistent with having landfall at, or very close to the New Orleans area," he said, which allowed emergency planners on the ground specific knowledge with which to proceed.
Right before Hurricane Katrina hit Florida, according to Mr. Bender, the model predicted it would make a jog to the southwest after which it would graze the tip of Florida and then rapidly intensify in the Gulf of Mexico "which is exactly what it did."Although, no-one can know if the devastation would have been worse without the accuracy of the improved model, "I think it probably would have made quite a huge difference," Mr. Bender said.
Their work is far from over, both Mr. Bender and Mr. Marchok noted. Even with the current model’s high accuracy "there’s always improvement," Mr. Bender said, noting "we are hoping to improve the model for intensity forecast."

