After this week’s bye, Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers play three of their next four games on the road.
By Damian Strohmeyer/SI
It’s only Week 4, but dark clouds have gathered in numerous NFL cities. Here’s the early hit list and the chances that things will get better:
Pittsburgh
The Steelers are 1-2 in a division in which Cincinnati is 3-0 and getting better and Baltimore is 3-0 and already good. One-and-two is a deeper hole than it looks in the standings. Ben Roethlisberger got booed at home last Sunday (trust me, I was there; it wasn’t thunderous booing, but it wasn’t a smattering, either).
The Steelers have two problems:
1) Big Ben’s turbulent summer has left him way short of early-season sharpness. In the 9-0 Monday night loss to Jacksonville ("It was embarrassing to play like that on Monday night,” All-Pro wideout Hines Ward told me last weekend), Roethlisberger was lousy and the Steelers lay the blame on their inability to run the ball. Last Sunday in a 28-20 loss to Bengals, they ran the ball just fine (Willie Parker gashed the Tigers for 133 yards on 31 carries and the Steelers’ o-line was manly) and still Roethlisberger threw three picks.
2) I understand that Antwaan Randle-El wasn’t the second coming of Lance Alworth, but in his absence the Steelers have nobody on the perimeter that scares defenses. Ward might be in the Hall of Fame someday, but he’s a reliable possession guy, not an every-day downfield threat. And he told me he’s already seeing coverages this year he’s never seen before. This offense needs work.
Outlook — Things will get better. Roethlisberger needs games (this was not a good week for a bye) and snaps and he will improve. He won’t carry an offense. Parker looks reliable in the ground game. Ward will find ways to get open. The Steelers will win nine or 10 games, but that’s not going to be good enough to win the division and might not be good enough for a wild card, either.
Miami
The offseason is like Christmas: All is good in the world and everybody is headed for the Super Bowl. I did a story on the ‘Fins for Sports Illustrated in June, after spending time at their mini-camp. At the time, second-year coach Nick Saban’s systems — on and off the field — seemed to be taking hold and everyone on the grounds was raving about Daunte Culpepper’s swift recovery from a knee reconstruction.
Three weeks into the season the Dolphins are 1-2 and only by virtue of a desperate win over the Titans are they not winless. Culpepper has thrown one touchdown pass and three interceptions. He doesn’t look recovered or effective and my ears are ringing with the warnings spoken to me during a visit to Vikings’ training camp in August, in which I was warned by Vikings’ insiders that Culpepper is not just injured, but maybe finished.
Whether that’s true or not, there have already been calls in the South Florida media for Joey Harrington to replace Culpepper until: a) Culpepper is really healthy, or b) forever. This prospect must be chilling for Lions fans, who watched Harrington’s slow, steady failure in Motown.
Meanwhile, Saban’s patience — not his strongest quality — will be tested. A year ago he unloaded on the Dolphins and helped right a listing ship after a terrible midseason loss to Cleveland. A similar eruption will come earlier this year.
Outlook — Culpepper looks like damaged goods. Maybe he needs another six months’ rehab on the knee and he’ll be the Daunte of old. That doesn’t do the Dolphins any good. On the other hand, the defense is a solid fourth in the AFC in total defense and the AFC East isn’t exactly looking like the Group of Death, with New England hearing the death rattle of its dynasty and the Jets hanging on Chad Pennington’s shaky right arm. Expect the Dolphins to stay in the hunt in a division that could be won with 10 victories.
East Rutherford, N.J.
Home of the New York Giants. Most people who have come into contact with Tom Coughlin have at least one — and sometimes many more — tales of the man’s management style. My Coughlin story goes back to 1991, his first year as the head coach at Boston College. I was working for a New York newspaper and was assigned to travel to Boston and chronicle Coughlin’s turnaround job at BC. I was told that Coughlin would meet with me from 12-12:30, his lunch hour, and the time he designated for interviews. Now, 30 minutes is fine and plenty long enough, and as I recall, the interview went just fine (although it was a long time ago), but the most memorable thing was Coughlin standing up and ending things at 12:30, while I was, literally, in mid-question. T.C. just stood up, reached across the desk, gave me a firm handshake, thanked me for coming up and waved toward the door. That was it. End of interview.
OK, that was a long time ago. But Coughlin’s inflexibility has changed precious little and now he’s coaching a 1-2 team that had Super Bowl aspirations in the most voracious fan and media market on the planet. And twice in the last four games (once in the playoffs by Tiki Barber and then last Sunday by Jeremy Shockey), respected players have said that the Giants were "outcoached” by opponents.
All of this is troublesome enough, but add to that the Giants are 1-2 (separated from 0-3 only by a miracle comeback against the Eagles) and you’ve got yet another recipe for implosion. Signs are that Coughlin is losing — or has already lost — his team. That’s troublesome for any coach, but doubly so for a coach who demands such undying loyalty to his own system.
Outlook — Not good. The Giants get a bye this weekend, come back and (presumably) beat the Redskins at home, but then play the Falcons and Cowboys on the road, with the Jaguars and Bears waiting in November. It’s hard to imagine this unit winning 10 games without a serious chemistry adjustment. The Eagles should win more than that; maybe the Cowboys, too.
Detroit
What a mess. When I visited the Lions’ training camp in August, all sorts of feel-good vibe had been induced, because:
a) Head coach Rod Marinelli — the anti-Mooch — had gotten the roster’s attention with his earnest, drill sergeant routine. Good cop, bad cop. That always gets players’ attention, but in this case it seemed to have the potential to awaken the Lions’ talent.
b) Subbing out Harrington at QB and replacing him with veteran Jon Kitna, who desperately wanted to be a winner in what might be his last shot as a starter in the NFL.
c) A defense that seemed to be long on speed and tenacity, all the better to play the Tampa Two defense for Marinelli.
They still like Marinelli more than the Giants like Coughlin (although that’s setting the bar unduly low). Wideout Roy Williams promised reporters after last Sunday’s loss to Green Bay, which dropped the Lions to 0-3, that they will not quit on the season. (Williams, meanwhile, in his ostensible breakout season, has 16 catches in three games, which is respectable but not awesome).
Kitna has been fine, with an 89 passer rating and one pick (only one TD, however).
The defense has stuffed the run but sits just fourth from the bottom of the league in pass defense after Brett Favre carved it up. They are one of four teams in the NFL without an interception and play their next two games at St. Louis and at Minnesota, which means odds favor 0-5.
Outlook — Like I said, odds favor an 0-5 start and that’s synonymous with rebuilding, which is college talk. I’m not ready to concede that these are the same old Lions. For the past several seasons, they have fallen apart after decent starts. If they keep stopping the run, start pressuring the quarterback and getting the ball to Williams more often, they can win seven games. Maybe eight. They can’t win the division and can’t make the playoffs. It’s about the future. Matt Millen’s future is another issue altogether.