For many Garden State residents, it looks as though “New Jersey and You” are no longer perfect together. A recent report by Rutgers University uncovers an alarming exodus of residents from this state we’re in.
Titled “Where Have All the Dollars Gone? An Analysis of New Jersey Migration Patterns,” the report was published earlier this fall by Rutgers’ Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy. It analyzed data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to show statistically what many saw happening anecdotally: people moving out of New Jersey to states with a lower cost of living.
The study found a sharp slowdown in New Jersey’s population growth – from over 79,000 in 2002 to only 21,400 in 2006. During the same period, birth and international immigration rates remained steady. But the gap in the number of people packing up and leaving the Garden State vs. those moving in has tripled.
By extrapolating these trends, the report predicts New Jersey’s overall population might actually decline by 2008, with over 100,000 more people leaving the state than coming in from other states.
From 2000 to 2005, the study found that 1.1 million New Jerseyans moved out of state, roughly 1 out of every 8 people. We all are likely to know someone – a friend, neighbor or coworker – who has moved away.
The tax implications of this migration are significant. The study estimates the net outflow of taxpayers from 2000 to 2005 cost New Jersey $7.9 billion in adjusted gross income in 2005, or 3.3 percent of the state’s total. As a result, New Jersey saw lower employment, lower annual gross domestic product and lower sales and income revenue.
It’s hard to say why this trend is occurring, but report authors speculate that New Jersey’s high housing costs and high cost of living – paired with better economic opportunities in lower-cost states – are possible explanations.
In addition, the strong housing market of the past few years presented many people with a great opportunity to cash out and retire (or semiretire) to warmer, less expensive states. Seven of the top destinations for departing New Jerseyans are in the South and West: Florida, California, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, Texas and Maryland.
Strange, isn’t it, that all the building in New Jersey over the past few decades hasn’t yielded lower property taxes? The myth of the ratable chase is alive and well in many New Jersey municipalities, in spite of its failed promises to taxpayers.
We can’t build our way out of these trends. New Jersey still needs to invest in mass transportation alternatives, build on and use our existing infrastructure, revitalize our cities, and continue to preserve our remaining open space and farmland.
New Jersey may never truly be “perfect” for everyone, but it should be the kind of place where people can afford to live, and the kind of place where they want to stay.
Michele S. Byers
Executive Director
New Jersey Conservation Foundation
Far Hills