LAWENCE: Rider political expert predicts a close presidential race

By Lea Kahn, Staff Writer
   Ask Ben Dworkin whether he was surprised that U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan was formally chosen for the vice president’s slot at the Republican Party’s nominating convention this week, and the veteran political observer answered “no.”
   Rep. Ryan had already been placed on a short list of vice presidential possibilities by the presidential nominee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, said Mr. Dworkin, who is the executive director of Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics.
   And when Gov. Romney announced his choice of Rep. Ryan for the no. 2 slot weeks ago, “it sent a wave of inevitability,” Mr. Dworkin said. The first rule of choosing a vice presidential running mate is to “do no harm,” he added.
   ”No one expected (the choice of Rep. Ryan) to hurt Gov. Romney,” Mr. Dworkin said. “It may help him. Rep. Ryan complements him — his personality, his age and his geographic location. These are all positive things, but in the end, people vote for a president, not a vice president.”
   Mr. Dworkin said there was a lot of “push back” when former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was chosen to run with Republican presidential nominee U.S. Sen. John McCain in 2008, but in the end, it was a contest between Sen. McCain and Democratic Party nominee U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.
   And if Gov. Chris Christie had been chosen for the vice presidential slot, it might have been a different race — although the decision still comes down to whether voters would pick President Obama or Gov. Romney, Mr. Dworkin said.
   Gov. Christie is a political leader and persona who would bring his own qualities to the election, but the governor was not picked for the job, he said. Although Gov. Christie did not receive the vice presidential nomination, he was chosen to give the keynote speech.
   ”This will help to propel Gov. Christie to the top tier of Republican leaders in the U.S.,” Mr. Dworkin said. It was nice for the governor to have been chosen to speak at the convention, and it provided him with some good publicity, he added.
   Looking ahead to the Nov. 6 presidential election, Mr. Dworkin echoed many commentators — “the election will be close.” The ballots cast by voters in swing states will be key to the election outcome, he said.
   ”(The candidates) are all within a few points of each other. Who knows if there will be an outside event — Israel versus Iran or an environmental disaster — that could change the election. Today, all we know is that will be extremely close,” Mr. Dworkin said.