STUDY: district to have 660 fewer students in 2022-23
by James McEvoy, Managing Editor
HAMILTON — For the second time in as many meetings, school officials and the public received a potential glimpse into the district’s future.
Two weeks after learning fixes to aging district infrastructure would necessitate up to $227 million in funding, officials were told enrollment is expected to shrink slightly over the next 10 years.
Dr. Richard Grip, who performed a demographic study, said the district is estimated to lose 350 in the next five years and 660 by the 2022-23 school year.
Dr. Grip acknowledged the second half of the ten-year projection is a bit tricky.
”The first five years we have a lot of confidence in, but the second (set of five) years we have to start to project people who haven’t been born yet to figure out our kindergarten counts,” he explained.
The district is expected to see most of this decrease in the middle and high school levels, something he said is projected by decreases in the elementary level from the 2007-08 populations.
”If your elementary population is declining historically what is going to happen is as those students progress upward to the middle and high school grades that’s going to cause decline in those groups as well,” he said.
In the 2007-08 school year, the district had 13,015 students compared to 12,114 in October 2012.
While he said the decrease is projected to continue, it is not unique among school districts he’s analyzed. He said further the overall decline is not significant compared to some of these other districts.
To determine enrollment trends, he said, they looked at historical trends, student poverty rates, population trends and birth and fertility rates.
Some of the loses already experience could be explained by families moving out of the district or due to students attending parochial or charter schools, he said, noting that in the 2012-13 there were 620 children in the township attending charter or parochial schools.
Dr. Grip said that for the past five years the district has also experienced a phenomenon known as “negative kindergarten replacement” where there are fewer students in the district’s incoming kindergarten class than the number of students who graduated from Hamilton high schools the previous year.
In the 2012-13 school year there were 129 less students in the incoming kindergarten class than had graduated the year before. He said he believes this phenomenon has contributed to the district’s enrollment decline.
After inquiring with land use boards, Mr. Grip further noted potential developments currently being proposed or considered could yield 200 housing units, which he estimated would lead to an additional 110 children into the district. Some of the units are specifically proposed for senior populations.
In the second part of the presentation, Scott Downie, principal of the Spiezle Architectural Group, broke down which schools would be below, at or above capacity based on the projected enrollment.
Mr. Downie explained that capacity is determined in two ways one that is based on educational programs and practices and another determined mathematically by square footage.
He noted he believes educational-based capacity figures are more reliable.
After his presentation, Board President Albert Gazik questioned the notion that roughly 10 of the district’s 17 elementary schools were projected to be below capacity.
”I’ve been in those schools, they don’t have any empty classroom space,” Mr. Gazik said. “How do you explain reality with the chart?”
Mr. Downie responded that having capacity exceeding projected enrollment doesn’t necessarily translate to schools having empty space. He said additionally that the capacity figures are based on projected enrollment and not current student populations.
After the presentation, Board member Patricia DelGiudice, a member of the board’s newly created space and enrollment committee, told the public they are looking for community members to join the committee.
”We decided we were going to look at the big picture,” Ms. DelGiudice said of the committee.
She said further that they have discussed a variety of options including examining schools that could be expanded and looking at open lands in the township among a myriad of other options and possibilities.
”The committee also discussed that there are just buildings we may not be able to fix. It’s just taking good money and putting it into old buildings and our kids deserve so much better,” she said.
”We’re trying to gather as much data as we can because this is such a huge undertaking,” she added. “This is all very preliminary.”
Mr. Gazik, acknowledged public feedback regarding costs of district facility issues, specifically as it relates to the $227 million price tag.
”We haven’t spent anything yet — that’s what this committee is for to decide what we’re going to do and the manner in which we’re going to do it,” he said. “So if you have concerns please make yourself available and come to the committee meeting.”
The next committee meeting is scheduled for Monday, Feb. 10 at 6:30 p.m. in the board room of the administration building located at 92 Park Ave.
The next board of education meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, Feb. 19 at 7 p.m. at the same location.

