By Al Cavallo
In an article with the somewhat ominous title Meltdown in Science magazine, a publication not noted for scaremongering, results of a 2016 expedition to investigate recent changes in the Greenland ice cap were discussed., The conclusions were sobering: the ice cap is melting much more rapidly than anticipated due to several unexpected factors, and Greenland’s contribution to sea level rise has doubled since a baseline period of 1992-2011. In understated analytical language, one of the project scientists remarked: “Nobody expected the ice sheet to lose so much mass so quickly.” This is of some importance for coastal states like New Jersey., Most people know of Greenland as a fairly uncomfortable and unappealing island in the far North with long cold winters and short cold summers. Most of the island is actually white, covered with a huge icecap that is more than 8,200 feet thick at the center. If the entire ice mass were to melt average sea level would rise by more than 23 feet, flooding large areas of land near present day coastlines; even a 10 percent melt would have extreme consequences., In the past, most attention has focused on increased iceberg calving from the ice sheet edge as the primary cause of Greenland’s ice sheet decline. Since 2005 other physical factors have become more important. Melting and refreezing of snow on the surface creates rounded ice particles; flowing surface water forms surface pools, and may concentrate soot and other types of dust and provide nutrients for algae and microbe colonies on the ice surface. All of these effects darken the ice surface and increase solar absorption. Increased surface melt water can flow into ice sheet crevices and reach bedrock, lubricating the ice sheet-bedrock interface and accelerating ice sheet flow., In addition to local changes from global warming, there have been significant alterations in major weather patterns that now allow large masses of warm air with rainfall to linger over Greenland in the summer months. As temperatures in the arctic continue to increase these events are likely be more frequent and perhaps more severe. For example, in 2012 satellite observations showed that virtually the entire ice sheet was covered with a layer of liquid water., All of these phenomena raise fascinating scientific questions. For example, the bacterial and algal growths survive many freezing and thawing cycles, high ultraviolet light exposure and long, cold dark winters: what physical and genetic changes have allowed survival in such a hostile environment? How do all these different local and regional factors interact and how will they change; what confidence can one have in models that attempt to predict ice sheet melting?, And then there is the Antarctic ice sheet, which contains about 10 times as much ice as Greenland. Antarctica is more isolated from the immediate effects of global warming by large expanses of ocean. However, disturbing trends are already evident, and there are indications that parts of the Western Antarctic ice sheet are becoming unstable; melting could cause a rise in seal level of about 16 feet. Measurements and modeling of this ice sheet are now quite primitive, with a new research program attempting to understand how this ice sheet will react to higher global temperatures., Whatever the answer to these questions, it is evident that this is an experiment we absolutely should not be doing., Unfortunately, most people live busy, distracted lives from one paycheck to the next, one major illness away from disaster, and are only moved to action by something that impacts them personally., Thus there is an optimistic side to all of this bad news, and that is that a rise in sea level will affect many Americans financially, forcing them to take this problem seriously much sooner than they otherwise would. Those who live in or own second homes near the sea shore, or know people who do, will become increasingly aware of damage from storms and higher tides., Most importantly, insurance premiums for homes in areas at risk from these conditions have already begun to rise, and will continue to rise significantly. Thus, we will not need to wait for property to be damaged directly. Loss of resale value will occur as insurance companies compute the real cost of insuring coastal property, and buyers made aware of the unpleasant reality by much higher insurance premiums., Meanwhile, the rest of us should at least do what we can to not contribute to climate change by drastically reducing our use of fossil fuel. This is not at all as difficult as it might seem: we do not need to freeze in the dark or walk or bicycle everywhere. However, we do need to make use of affordable advanced technology., The easiest place to begin, surprisingly, is automobiles. The average New Jersey household burns about 30 barrels (1,260 gallons) of gasoline per year, and this can be reduced significantly without any decrease in comfort or convenience by using electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) or high efficiency internal combustion cars. As for affordability, the price of all of these cars is at or well below $34,000, the 2016 average transaction price for new cars in the U.S. (For example, my leased/purchased Leaf cost $16,500.), One can begin by visiting www.fueleconomy.gov, an excellent web site that allows side by side comparisons of different automobile technologies, including fuel economy, safety, price, and specifications., In general, it is much better to lease rather than buy an EV. This minimizes possible buyer remorse and technical obsolescence as well as the initial cash outlay. Leasing also allows one to take immediate advantage of the $7,500 federal income tax rebate which is reflected in the residual value of the car (the price the lessee can pay for the car at the end of the lease) and the monthly payments. Also, in New Jersey, EVs are exempt from sales tax., Newer model affordable EVs have a range of up to 238 miles (Chevy Bolt), and typically above 100 miles (Nissan Leaf, VW Golf-e, Hyundai Ioniq EV), more than adequate for local travel and commuting., While the news from Washington is rather grim as far as U.S. leadership on coping with climate change is concerned, this must not cause paralysis among concerned citizens. We can and should take full advantage of existing rebates, incentive payments, and new technology to reduce our own fossil fuel consumption as much as possible., Al Cavallo, now retired, was employed most recently as a physicist with the U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security and the U.S. Dept. of Energy. He was an energy analyst working in wind energy and petroleum resource assessment, and currently closely follows renewable energy, electric utilities and the petroleum industry.
