Traffic on local roads will almost triple by 2020, accoridng to a traffic study conducted for the Central Jersey Transporation Forum.
By: David M. Campbell
WEST WINDSOR — Traffic on local roadways will almost triple by 2020, according to a traffic study delivered Friday at the seventh meeting of the Central Jersey Transportation Forum.
The forum, held at the Sarnoff Corp., is part of an ongoing program sponsored by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission to help community leaders in central New Jersey address transportation issues in light of current and planned growth, primarily along the Route 1 corridor and the surrounding region.
More than three dozen state, county and municipal officials and a number of environmental advocacy groups attended the forum, including representatives of the state Department of Transportation, the New Jersey Turnpike Authority, the Millstone Watershed Association and the Tri-State Transportation Campaign. Local municipal representatives included Princeton Borough Mayor Marvin Reed, Princeton Township Mayor Phyllis Marchand and Princeton Borough Councilwoman Wendy Benchley.
John Coscia, planning commission executive director, said the modeling presented Friday showed “that almost all of the highways in the region will be over capacity, which means they will be heavily congested.
“I think that it was really startling to all of the mayors and officials in the meeting to see,” he said. “We really need to do some serious thinking on how to correct this situation before it occurs, and that’s what we’ll be doing over the next couple of months.”
The traffic study, conducted by international consulting firm URS Greiner Woodward Clyde, considers a “no-build” scenario for 2020.
The modeling was based on projected population and development growth in the event that no new roads or mass-transit facilities are built. The study area was bounded by Franklin Township to the north, Monroe Township to the east, East Windsor and West Windsor to the south, and Princeton and Montgomery to the west.
Population is expected to increase 34 percent by 2020, according to the study. The number of households is expected to rise 36 percent, and the number of jobs in the region is expected to increase 72 percent.
Based on these numbers, vehicle trips within the study area would increase 64 percent, from 660,000 to 1.083 million by 2020, with vehicle miles traveled increasing from about 5 million to more than 8 million. The study shows that the growth rate in vehicle hours would be more than double the growth rate in miles traveled, indicating significant congestion on the study area roads.
The study also showed that growth rates of population, employment and households within the study area would be more than double the growth rate of the surrounding region.
The “do-nothing” scenario analysis indicates that congestion on local roadways will almost triple by 2020, and all major highways will be over capacity. The study showed major congestion in two growth centers within the study area, the Route 1 corridor near Princeton and the New Jersey Turnpike interchange 8A area.
“Severe congestion” is expected on all major east-west roads crossing the Millstone River in the Princeton area, and the average speed on all roads in the study will “drop significantly,” according to the study.
“I think it was the most significant of all the meetings we’ve had so far, and it indicates that we’re really getting down to assembling some very important information that can affect planning for this region,” said Princeton Borough Mayor Marvin Reed.
Borough Councilwoman Wendy Benchley said the traffic projections “were just breathtaking,” and called them “a wake-up call” for municipal planners.
Ms. Benchley said many of the numbers projected for 2020 already exist, based on building projects already planned but not yet begun, and said it is “absolutely imperative” that the planning commission revise its forecast for 2005.
“Our neighborhood roads will be impacted; they will look like Nassau Street looks now at rush hour, bumper-to-bumper traffic,” Ms. Benchley said. “The reason this no-growth scenario is important is that we need the state and all the municipalities in central New Jersey to understand how dramatic these numbers are.
We need action now so that we’re not overwhelmed by 2005 and 2020,” she said.
Ms. Benchley said it was “essential Governor Whitman and the next governor confront New Jersey’s transportation problems with dramatic action.”
The state government needs to increase the amount of funds to municipalities and school districts to help decrease local dependence on increased ratables, which creates sprawl, Ms. Benchley said.
The state administration also needs to instruct the state Department of Transportation to redirect its financing from building more roads to cope with traffic to developing transit alternatives such as light rail services, mass transit and local jitney services, Ms. Benchley said.
Ms. Benchley also said communities should be rewarded for efforts to stop suburban sprawl. She said development rights should be transferred to local governments so they are better equipped to control sprawl by focusing development in denser areas, while preserving farmland and open space.
The next round of modeling will focus on traffic projections based on possible highway improvements, land use changes and transit alternatives, such as light rail, mass transit and municipal and borough jitney services, Mr. Coscia said.