NWS SCALES BACK ESTIMATES

BREAKING NEWS: The National Weather Service continues to warn residents of Central New Jersey about a nor’easter that has begun dropping precipitation in the area. Snowfall estimates for the storm range from 3 to 10 inches.

By T.J. Furman
   Though original predictions of a titanic blizzard have been scaled back, the National Weather Service is still warning area residents about a powerful nor’easter that may linger in the area of Central New Jersey for more than two days.
   Snow, rain and sleet are falling in parts of Central Jersey as the storm’s center makes its way to the Virginia coast.
   When all is said and done Tuesday, the NWS says 3 to 10 inches of the white stuff will be lying on the ground in the area.
   "Travel will become very difficult and dangerous, if not impossible, beginning late this afternoon and into early Tuesday," a NWS statement read.
   A winter storm warning remains in effect for Mercer, Middlesex, Hunterdon, Somerset and Bucks (Pa.) counties. A winter storm watch has been issued for Monmouth and Burlington counties which will take effect Monday afternoon.
   The precipitation mixture falling across the area is forecasted to change over to sleet and freezing rain overnight before changing back to snow by noon Monday.
   The weather service has issued the following snowfall accumulation predictions:
   • Five to 10 inches of snow in Mercer, Middlesex, Somserset, Hunterdon and Bucks by Tuesday morning, with an 80 percent chance of snow showers through the day Tuesday.
   • Three to 5 inches of snow in eastern Monmouth and Burlington by Tuesday morning, with a 60 percent chance of snow showers Tuesday.
   • Three to 6 inches of snow in western Monmouth by Tuesday morning with a 60 percent chance of snow showers Tuesday.
   Though the snow accumulations may not be as high as originally foretold, coastal flood warnings have been issued from Sunday night through Tuesday night for Middlesex and Monmouth counties. The NWS says the first threat of flooding is expected to take place during the high tide between 1 a.m. and 3 a.m. Monday.
   Minor coastal flooding is expected with the Monday morning high tide, moderate flooding with the Monday afternoon swell and severe coastal flooding is possible with the high tides Tuesday morning and afternoon, and Wednesday morning, according to the NWS. The tide may reach as high as 8 1/2 feet at Sandy Hook on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.
   Forecast accumulation estimates Saturday ranged from 8 inches to 2 feet for Central Jersey by Tuesday — the time the storm is expected to move out to sea. The weather service still says accumulations of up to 2 feet are possible in northern New Jersey.
   The forecast revision is due to the slow pace the storm is setting as it moves from the southeast corner of the United States to the mid-Atlantic coast, according to the NWS. The low pressure area creating the havoc was originally expected to be off the North Carolina coastline by Sunday afternoon. It is now forecasted to move off the Virginia coast Monday morning, allowing a mass of warmer air to move into New Jersey before the precipitation falls.
   The last major snowstorm to strike the area moved through on Dec. 30, 2000, dropping as much as 22 inches on Central Jersey and 25.5 inches in the northern-most parts of the Garden State.
   Two snowstorms last month caused traffic headaches. A storm struck Feb. 5, dumping over a foot of snow in northwest parts of Hunterdon County and totals of 3 to 5 inches in other parts of the area. Traffic was backed up for hours in parts of Central Jersey as the storm began in the late morning hours and grew more powerful than expected, continuing well into an extended evening rush hour.
   A storm on Feb. 22 left Central Jersey with accumulations of 3 to 8 inches and again caused evening rush hour traffic back-ups.
Check back with this Web site for updates concerning this storm.